April Jobs Report: Florida and Orlando

The latest report on the state and local economy was released this morning and it continued to indicate that a real recovery is underway.  The headline numbers include a net gain of 34,000 jobs statewide in April (+0.4%) and up nearly 247,000 over the last 12 months (+3.3%) while the unemployment rate fell to 6.2%.  Regular readers of this blog already know what's coming up next - what about the effect of the participation rate?  This is where I'm supposed to say that the participation rate fell and there was no real decline in the unemployment rate.  However ... the participation rate has started to increase recently and is now aapproaching 60.7% (compared to a low of about 60% in late 2013 and 60.4% one year ago.  If the participation rate had remained constant over the last year, the unemployment rate would be even lower.  Of course the recent increase just brings it back to where it was in the second half of 2011.  Prior to the recession (Dec 2007), the participation rate stood at 64.2%.  Given demographics trends, it shouldn't return to that rate.  The recent bounce in the participation rate supports the idea that a significant portion of the decline was cyclical (people not looking for work due to a poor job market; as the job market improves, more people are looking for jobs).

Which industries are leading the rebound?  Food/Accomodation services added thre most jobs in April and have risen 5.6% since April 2013.  Professional/Business services came in second for the month and have increased by 5.1% in the last year, led by employment services, which have risen by 10% and professional/technical services (+4.6%).  Construction continued its recovery, adding nearly 5000 jobs last month and almost 44,000 over thre last year (+12.1%).

Given the strong job growth statewide, which major metropolitan area is posting the strongest gains?  Just under half of the job gains statewide in April were in Metro Orlando, which added 12,000 jobs.  Over the last year, employment in Orlando is up 4.5% (4.9% in the private sector).  Official data for metropolitan areas throughout the US for April won't be released until later this month, but it appears that Orlando may have the fastest rate of job creation of any major metropolitan area in the county.  Which industries have led the surge in employment?  Fortunately, it has been quite diversified including leisure/hospitality (up 14,800 or 6.8%), professional/business services (up 10,300 or 5.9%), retail trade (up 6600 or 5.1%), and construction (up 5200 or 10.5%).  One can question the quality of jobs to some extent, but an increasing proportion of high-paying jobs are being added (particularly in construction and professional/technical services).

What are the key takeaways?  The Florida job market is experiencing significant improvement, with strong employment gains and lower unemployment despite an increase in the number of people seeking work.  Orlando is among the strongest metropolitan areas in the nation in terms of the rate of job creation, with a rising portion of the gains in relatively high-paying industries.

March Job Market Report: Florida and Orlando

The latest report regarding the status of the labor market for Florida and its metro areas was released this morning and it confirmed the recent strengthening taking place in the local job market.  Though the unemployment rate for Florida rose slightly, it was due to an increase in the number of people looking for jobs rather than fewer jobs available.  After declining since the start of the recession and falling to slightly less than 60% a few months ago, the participation rate is now 60.5%.  Payrolls rose by nearly 23,000 in March, with private payrolls up 3.5% over the last 12 months (one of the highest rates in the nation).  Leading sectors included accommodation and food services (up 6200 for the month) and construction/real estate. Construction has now added over 40,000 jobs (+11.5%) since last March and is up nearly 20% since reaching a low in the summer of 2011 while real estate, rental and leasing finance has added 7700 jobs over the last 12 months (+4.7%).  The good news in construction and related sectors should be tempered by recognizing that construction employment is back up to where it was in July 2009, at the end of the recession.

Central Florida added 3000 jobs in March (not seasonally adjusted), 2600 of which were in leisure/hospitality.  As with the state, construction had the largest employment growth rate over the last year, up 8.6%.  Other areas of growth included leisure/hospitality (up 9500 or 4.3%), retail trade (up 5600 or 4.3%) and professional/business services (up 5500 or 3.2%).

 After modest job growth in recent years that struggled to keep up with population growth, both the local and state job markets have strengthened recently, achieving both stronger and broader employment gains which have begun to attract those on the sidelines to re-enter the job market.

The Florida & Orlando Job Market

The latest information about the state and local job market was released this morning, showing rising employment and a declining unemployment rate for both Florida and metro Orlando.  Though I normally comment on the data for the month, since this report wrapped up 2013, I think it's helpful to also reflect on the year.

The unemployment rate in Florida declined from 6.4% to 6.2%.  If you've read this blog before, you know the next question - was it due to employment growth or fewer people participating in the job market?  The participation rate was down fractionally, so this time it reflects an improvement in the labor market.  For metro Orlando, the unemployment rate fell to 5.5% from 5.9%.  Some of this was due to seasonal factors, but it also reflects a stronger job market.

Florida added over 14,000 jobs in December, 13,500 in the private sector led by retail trade, which added 9100 jobs (seasonally adjusted).  Orlando added 6500 jobs in the private sector (6000 overall; not seasonally adjusted), with half of the jobs added in retail trade (2100) and food/accommodation places (1000).  Looking at the monthly figures, it's easy to question the quality of jobs added both statewide (70% in retail) and locally (50% in retail & hotels/restaurants).  However ...

For 2013 as a whole, Florida added nearly 195,000 jobs in the private sector (3.1%).  The largest gains were in construction (+8.4%), retail trade (+5.5%), real estate, rental, & leasing (+4.9%).  Digging a little deeper, leading categories included civil engineering construction (+12.9%), building material and supply stores (+10.3%), architectural, engineering and related services (+9.8%), and specialty trade contractors (+8.7%).  In other words, the housing rebound contributed significantly to a rebound in the Florida job market.

Meanwhile, metro Orlando added 32,500 private sector jobs, a gain of 3.4%.  Leading sectors included ambulatory health care services (+7.1%), arts & recreation (+6.5%), food/drinking places (+5.1%), and real estate, rental & leasing (+4.7%).  Though construction was an outperformer, it didn't play as significant role locally as it did statewide.

What about the unemployment rate?  The Florida unemployment rate declined from 7.9% in December 2012 to 6.2% in December 2013.  However, much of the decline was due to a falling labor force participation rate, which fell from 60.5% to 59.6%.  If the participation rate had remained stable, the current unemployment rate would have been 7.57%.  Nationally, the falling participation rate was responsible for the entire decline in the unemployment rate (i.e., the unemployment rate for the US would have remained at 7.9% if the participation rate had remained constant).

What's the key takeaway from the report?  Though retail was largely responsible for the job gains in Florida in December (remember, the data are seasonally adjusted, so that's not due to Christmas), the Florida job market outperformed that of the nation in 2013, both in terms of job gains and falling unemployment.

Job Market: Florida and Orlando

The latest snapshot of the state and local job market was released this morning, showing unemployment declining to 6.4% in Florida (seasonally adjusted) and 5.8% in Metro Orlando (not seasonally adjusted).  In both cases, the rates were the lowest since 2008.  Does that mean that unemployment is no longer much of an issue in Florida?  While the job market has improved, readers of this blog can probably guess what I'm going to say next.  A major reason for the decline in the Florida unemployment rate over the last year has been the decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell from 60.5% in November 2012 to 59.6% in November 2013 (after already falling quite a bit in prior years).  If the participation rate had remained steady over the last 12 months, the unemployment rate would be about 7.7%, a small decline from last November's 8%.  Though employment growth was modest in November (net increase of 6100 jobs, nearly 60% of which were in retail trade), that's coming off of two strong months of job growth in which the state economy added nearly 69,000 jobs.

Metro Orlando's unemployment rate declined as well, but some of it reflects seasonal issues (the local data released today are not seasonally adjusted) and some of it is likely due to a lower participation rate.  That said, there is real improvement in the local job market, but not as much as implied in the official figures.  Employment growth in both Florida and Orlando exceeded the national average over the last 12 months (2.7% in Orlando, 2.5% in Florida, 1.7% in the US).  Leading growth sectors statewide (since Nov 2012) were retail trade and professional/technical services while food/drinking places and ambulatory health care services were the top gainers for Orlando over the last 12 months (though retail trade was responsible for half of the employment gains in November, primarily due to seasonal issues, i.e., Christmas!).

What are the key takeaways from this morning's report about the state and local job market?  Both continue to improve, but the improvement is somewhat overstated due to fewer people participating in the job market (if you're no longer participating in the job market, you're not counted as unemployed).  A relative strengthening of the Florida and Orlando labor markets is evidenced by employment growth statewide and locally exceeding that of the nation (over the last few months as well as the last year).

Some Thoughts on the Employment Report for Florida and Metro Orlando

The latest information about the job market in Florida and Orlando was released on Friday.  The headline numbers looked good: Florida added nearly 33,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate fell to 7.5% while the unemployment rate in Orlando declined to 6.6% with employment rising by 3500 (metro data are not seasonally adjusted).  Of course it's important to look at the details.

The entire decline in the unemployment rate for Florida was due to a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell from 60.5% to 60.3%.  If the participation had remained constant, the unemployment rate would be 7.8%.  In terms of nonfarm payrolls (employment), nearly a third of the jobs were in accommodations and food services.  However, a sizeable portion was also in construction, which was the fastest growing sector of the economy.  Add it up and it was a pretty good report for Florida.

The decline in Orlando's unemployment rate was due in part to a somewhat strong job market, but a significant portion resulted from seasonal factors and a decline in the labor force participation rate.  What really stood out was that over 90% of the job growth in March was due to leisure and hospitality (3200 out of 3500); that sector also accounted for over 60% of employment growth over the last 12 months.  The high concentration of job growth in one sector and the fact that leisure/hospitality jobs have lower pay than most other sectors raises questions about the strength of the Orlando economy.  So there's a mixed picture for metro Orlando: a sizeable decline in the unemployment rate, but employment growth concentrated in one of the lowest paying sectors.  One other item to note is that construction employment declined in March as well as over the last 12 months, which does not seem to fit with the anecdotal evidence of increasing construction activity.

What are the key takeaways?  Job growth in Florida is outpacing that of the nation over the last year, though Orlando is coming up short (1.9% growth for Florida, 1.4% for the US, and 1.3% for Orlando).  Given cutbacks in government employment, private sector employment growth is stronger (2.4% for Florida, 1.6% for Orlando).  Florida's labor market continues to improve, but similar to the nation, a declining participation rate is contributing to the declining unemployment rate.  Orlando's job market also is improving, but there are concerns about the quality of jobs as well as growth being concentrated in one sector rather than broad-based gains.

September Employment Report: Florida & Orlando

This morning, the government released the latest employments report for states and local areas (link to Florida report).  The unemployment rate for Florida dipped slightly to 8.7%.  As with the national numbers, the household survey (used to estimate the unemployment rate) was more positive than the establishment survey (used to estimate the change in payrolls).  For the month, Florida added 800 jobs (though it should be noted that it added 23,900 jobs in August).  The sectors posting the largest gains were Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (up 5000 jobs or 2.7%) and construction, which added 4200 jobs (+1.3%).  This was offset by losses in administrative and waste services, which shed 9400 jobs (state data is seasonally adjusted).

For the second straight month, metro Orlando had a standout sector.  Last month, professional and business services added 6100 jobs.  This month, construction added 3500 jobs (up more than 10%), its largest monthly gain since at least 1990 (that's how far back the BLS data goes for metropolitan areas).  Florida as a whole added 3000 construction jobs in September (not seasonally adjusted), so that entire gain and more was due to Orlando.  Given these recent gains, Orlando now leads the state in employment growth over the last 12 months.  The unemployment rate in Orlando declined to 8.4% (not seasonally adjusted).  When the seasonally adjusted data comes out later this month, it will probably be 8.2 to 8.3%, the lowest since December 2008 (down from a peak of 11.5% in January 2010).  It appears that the Orlando economy may be coming back to life.  Time will tell if these gains continue.

August Employment Report: Florida & Orlando

This morning, the government released the latest report on the job market for Florida and its counties/cities.  First, the headlines.  The unemployment rate in Florida remained at 8.8% while the state added 23,200 jobs in August (seasonally adjusted).  For Metro Orlando, the unemployment rate declined from 9.1% to 8.7% and the metro area added 17,100 jobs (not seasonally adjusted).

The numbers for Florida are OK.  Employment growth was more rapid than in previous months, but the leading industries were administrative and waste service (which includes temp jobs), accommodation & food services, and construction.  In addition, there was a rebound in private education jobs (remember that the data is seasonally adjusted).  The labor force participation rate declined below 60%, falling from 60.7% in August 2011 to 59.9% in August 2012.  If the participation rate had remained constant over the last year, the unemployment rate would be 10% instead of 8.8%.  Thus, Florida has added jobs in the last year, but most of the decline in the unemployment rate has been due to fewer people participating in the labor force.

Most of the decline in the unemployment rate for metro Orlando is due to seasonal factors, but the seasonally adjust rate will probably show a small decline when reported later this month (the seasonally-adjusted rate was 8.6% in July while the unadjusted rate was 9.1%; the seasonally-adjusted rate will probably be 8.4 or 8.5% in August).  The employment gain of 17,100 was the second largest for the month of August since 1988 (the first year that comparable data was available; only exceeded in 2006).  The gain moved Orlando from year-over-year employment growth of 1% in July to 2.6% in August (making it the fastest growing metro area in Florida).  Of course local government added jobs as public schools reopened (and local data is not seasonally adjusted).  The other sector that stands out is professional and business services, which added 6500 jobs and now is the fastest growing sector over the last year, showing a gain of 4.4% since August 2012.

July Job Report for Florida

The Florida job market worsened in July as the state lost 3300 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 8.8%.  Job losses were spread across various industries, led by wholesale trade and local government, both down 3100 for the month (seasonally adjusted).   Industries that added jobs included employment agencies (temps) and amusement parks.  In fact, employment agencies have experienced an increase of 27,200 jobs over the last year (an 18% increase), which represents nearly 40% of the net increase in overall jobs statewide.  Number two in terms of adding jobs over the last year was food and accomodation places, with an increase of 11,500 while the industry shedding the most jobs was state government, down 6300 since July 2011.  Overall, the private sector has added 7800 jobs thus far in 2012, while the public sector lost 9600, resulting in a net loss of 1800 jobs so far this year.  Meanwhile, the labor force declined slightly, reducing the labor force participation rate to 60%.  The decline in the participation rate is responsible for about a third of the decline in the unemployment rate this year.

The unemployment rate for metro Orlando rose to 9.1% from 8.7% in June.  About half of the increase was due to seasonal factors.  The government releases its estimate of the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for metropolitan areas several weeks after the main job report.  It's likely that the seasonally-adjusted rate rose from 8.5% to 8.7%.  Orlando lost 5500 jobs in July and now reports a one percent increase over the past year, the same as Florida with both lagging the country, which posted an increase of 1.4%. 

What's the takeaway from this report?  Both the state and local economy continue to struggle to recover from the Great Recession, with job markets that continues to be quite weak.

June Job Market Report: Florida & Orlando

The latest look at the state and local job market presents more of the same: sluggish job growth.  Florida's unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.6% while Orlando's unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) rose to 8.7% from 8.3%.  Though unemployment statewide is declining, the weak labor force participation has exaggerated the decline.  Though Florida's noninstitutional adult population grew by 216,000 in the last year, the labor force grew by only 33,000, reducing the participation rate to 60.1%.  If the participation rate had remained stable over the last year, the unemployment rate would be 9.5% (down from 10.7%, but significantly higher than the official rate of 8.6%).  Florida added 9000 jobs in June (seasonally adjusted) and nearly 71,000 over the last year, which represents an increase of 1% (a slighter faster rate than experienced in recent months).  Industries showing the largest gains include wholesale & retail trade (6600), professional & business services (5600), and leisure & hospitality (4200).  The losers were led by construction (5300), manufacturing (3000) and private education services (2800).

Does the increase in the unemployment rate in Orlando indicate a worsening of the local job market?  Though national and state data are seasonally adjusted, local data is not.  However, the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) releases estimates of seasonally adjusted (SA) unemployment rates for metropolitan areas with a one month delay.  Orlando's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May 2012 was 8.6% (as opposed to 8.3% not seasonally adjusted).  Based on seasonal adjustments in previous years, the June rate is probably about 8.6% (SA), indicating little, if any, change in the unemployment rate.  Over the last year, employment in Orlando increased by 1%, matching that of the state.

What's the primary takeaway from the report?  Employment growth in Florida remains sluggish and weaker than the nation, but the year-over-year rate of growth has increased a little (a little good news)!