| Year | Black Friday | Holiday Sales | Consumption Q4 |
| 2011 | +6.6% (+4.0%) | | |
| 2010 | +0.3% (-1.0%) | +5.2% (+3.9%) | +3.6% |
| 2009 | +0.5% (-1.0%) | -0.4% (-1.9%) | +0.4% |
| 2008 | +3% (+1.3%) | -2.8% (-4.5%) | -5.1% |
| 2007 | +8% (+4.5%) | +2.4% (-1.1%) | +1.2% |
| 2006 | +6% (+4.1%) | +4.6% (+2.7%) | +3.8% |
Showing posts with label Black Friday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Black Friday. Show all posts
Friday, January 27, 2012
One more update on Black Friday, Holiday Sales, and Consumer Spending
In late November, I commented on the historical relationship between Black Friday and different measures of consumer spending (holiday sales and fourth quarter consumption). Many commentators were optimistic about economic growth for the quarter, given the strong performance of Black Friday sales. With the release of today's GDP report, we can now consider that relationship for 2011. With the exception of 2006, Black Friday sales have been a poor predictor of overall consumer spending for the quarter (sometimes too high, while other times too low). This time, Black Friday sales proved to lead to too much optimism about the consumer. It appears that Black Friday led to an early burst in consumer spending that disappeared in December, resulting in modest gains in holiday sales and consumer spending. See the updated chart below for more information (numbers in parentheses are adjusted for inflation; consumption is already adjusted for inflation):
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Update on Black Friday vs. Holiday Sales
Two reports related to holiday spending were released this morning - retail sales for December and an estimate of holiday sales from the National Retail Federation. We can now begin to update a post from late November which considered whether Black Friday Sales were a good predictor of holiday sales. Below is a chart showing the growth in Black Friday sales according to Shopper Track and the growth in Holiday Sales according to the National Retail Federation from 2006 to the present, both in nominal terms and adjusted for inflation using the PCE index (in parentheses). The final column shows the growth in the consumption component of GDP for the fourth quarter (initial estimate to be released later this month):
Black Friday sales now have outperformed holiday sales in 5 out of the last 6 years (the exception being 2010). This year in particular, it appears that consumers front loaded their holiday spending, as retail sales only increased by 0.1% in December, declining slightly after adjusting for inflation.
| Year | Black Friday | Holiday Sales | Consumption Q4 |
| 2011 | +6.6% (+4.0%) | | |
| 2010 | +0.3% (-1.0%) | +5.2% (+3.9%) | +3.6% |
| 2009 | +0.5% (-1.0%) | -0.4% (-1.9%) | +0.4% |
| 2008 | +3% (+1.3%) | -2.8% (-4.5%) | -5.1% |
| 2007 | +8% (+4.5%) | +2.4% (-1.1%) | +1.2% |
| 2006 | +6% (+4.1%) | +4.6% (+2.7%) | +3.8% |
Black Friday sales now have outperformed holiday sales in 5 out of the last 6 years (the exception being 2010). This year in particular, it appears that consumers front loaded their holiday spending, as retail sales only increased by 0.1% in December, declining slightly after adjusting for inflation.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Black Friday vs. Holiday Sales
Reports indicate that Black Friday sales increased significantly compared to last year, rising 6.6% according to Shopper Track. What does that indicate about holiday sales and consumption for the fourth quarter of 2011? Below is a chart showing the growth in Black Friday sales according to Shopper Track and the growth in Holiday Sales according to the National Retail Federation from 2006 to the present, both in nominal terms and adjusted for inflation using the PCE index (in parentheses). The final column shows the growth in the consumption component of GDP for the fourth quarter:
Given the above, what do Black Friday sales tell us about holiday sales and consumer spending for the fourth quarter? Not too much. Strong Black Friday sales in 2006 were followed by reasonably strong holiday sales while weak Black Friday sales in 2009 were followed by weak holiday sales. However, the growth in Black Friday sales were a poor predictor of holiday sales in 2007, 2008 and 2010; providing an overly optimistic forecast in 2007-2008 and overly pessimistic in 2010. Do strong Black Friday sales mean that holiday sales and consumer spending will be strong in 2011? Only time will tell.
Year | Black Friday | Holiday Sales | Consumption Q4 |
2011 | +6.6% (+3.7%) | ||
2010 | +0.3% (-1.0%) | +5.2% (+3.9%) | +3.6% |
2009 | +0.5% (-1.0%) | -0.4% (-1.9%) | +0.4% |
2008 | +3% (+1.3%) | -2.8% (-4.5%) | -5.1% |
2007 | +8% (+4.5%) | +2.4% (-1.1%) | +1.2% |
2006 | +6% (+4.1%) | +4.6% (+2.7%) | +3.8% |
Given the above, what do Black Friday sales tell us about holiday sales and consumer spending for the fourth quarter? Not too much. Strong Black Friday sales in 2006 were followed by reasonably strong holiday sales while weak Black Friday sales in 2009 were followed by weak holiday sales. However, the growth in Black Friday sales were a poor predictor of holiday sales in 2007, 2008 and 2010; providing an overly optimistic forecast in 2007-2008 and overly pessimistic in 2010. Do strong Black Friday sales mean that holiday sales and consumer spending will be strong in 2011? Only time will tell.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)