Friday, October 7, 2011

Today's job market report - first thoughts

At first glance, this morning's report looks OK - better than expected, but not strong.  The good news is 137,000 new private sector jobs were added in September, though that includes the 45,000 Verizon workers who returned to work after a strike (so it's a 92,000 net increase in jobs).  Also, August's numbers were revised upward to show a gain of 57,000 jobs (originally estimated at no change).  Temp agencies added about 20,000 jobs in each of the last two months.  An important gauge of the labor market, the index of aggregagte hours worked, rose in September, more than reversing a decline from August and is now higher for the third quarter.  Recent trends indicate that the economy is adding about 75,000 jobs a month.   Unemployment remained at 9.1%.  Both the employment-population ratio and labor force participation rate rose in August.  The bad news is that the broad measure of unemployment (U6) rose to 16.5% from 16.2% in August.  Add it up and it continues to point to a sluggish economy rather than a recession.  More later...