Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Good News about the US economy
With all the turmoil in global financial markets, there have been positive signs about the US economy. This morning, the ADP report indicated that the private sector added over 200,000 jobs. Though the ADP report has not been a reliable predictor of the official employment report, it still reflects a hopeful trend. In addition, the latest measure of consumer confidence showed significant improvement, though from an extremely weak level to a somewhat weak level. Also, sales during Black Friday and Cyber Monday increased significantly compared to last year, though as discussed elsewhere, this may not mean that holiday sales will also rise at a similar rate. Thus, there are some indications that the US economy is improving somewhat; not strong economic growth, but not teetering on a recession. However, if the situation in Europe leads to global financial contagion, the US economy is clearly at risk.