Friday, April 24, 2020

Latest Forecast from the CBO

The Congressional Budget Office just released their latest forecast about the economy through the end of 2021 (while acknowledging a high level of uncertainty).  Here are some of the most interesting numbers:

Economic growth

  • Q2: -39.6%
  • Q3: +23.5%
  • 2020: -5.6%
  • 2021: 2.8%

Unemployment Rate:

  • Q2: 14%
  • Q3: 16%
  • Q4: 11.7%
  • 2021Q4: 9.5%

note: labor force declines by 6 million between now & the end of 2021

Budget Deficit:

  • 2020: $3.7 trillion (17.9% of GDP)
  • 2021: $2.1 trillion (9.8% of GDP)