Friday, April 3, 2020

March Employment Report

The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released the March employment report this morning and it included more of the initial effects of Covid-19 than expected.  Here are some highlights:
  • nonfarm payrolls declined by 701,000 (establishment survey)
  • unemployment rose from 3.5% to 4.4%
  • U6 rose from 7% to 8.7% (this is a more comprehensive measure of "unemployment" that accounts for those who left the job market, but still want a job as well as those working part time for economic reasons)
  • number of unemployed (reported by the household survey) rose by 1.4 million (total of 7.1 million); much of the increase is among those reported being on temporary layoff
  • number of those working part time for economic reasons increased by 1.4 million (i.e., they still have a job, but their hours were reduced)
  • labor force participation rate declined from 63.4% to 62.7%.  So many people left the job market and are not considered to be unemployed.  Without this, the unemployment rate would have increased to 5.4%
As mentioned previously, this report does not account for most of what is going on in the job market, since it reflects information as of mid-March (before much of the damage took place).  Next month's report will reflect the serious damage underway and will likely show horrific job losses and double-digit unemployment.