David Kaplan, President of the Dallas Fed, predicts unemployment rising to the low- to mid-teens before declining to under 10% (probably closer to 8%) at the end of the this year. It anticipates a severe contraction followed by a U-shaped recovery (recovery that starts off weak).
Meanwhile, Fitch is expecting a 3.3% decline in US GDP for 2020 (includes Q1 - Q4) - see Marketwatch.. In addition (according to Marketwatch):
Fitch warned not to expect a V-shaped economic bounce, as the negative impacts on consumer behavior are likely to linger into next year.
“Our [new] baseline forecast does not see GDP reverting to its pre-virus levels until late 2021 in the U.S. and Europe,” Coulton said.
And yes, it's now official that about 10 million people filed new claims for unemployment in the last couple of weeks. Unfortunately, there's more to come.
